Publishers are in pole position as we navigate new norms

Not a first party? You’re in trouble 

There was a time before digital ad distribution had overtaken analogue. Back then planning, activation and measurement were cumbersome, expensive, and inconvenient. Media plans, buys and measurements were based on surveys, econometric modelling, or experiments, all using statistically inferred, or modelled, data for advertisers trained to interpret them. ​

The internet’s trackability and the emergence of the surveillance economy later changed the game for media buying with its 1:1 tracking of people cross-companies. During this time, advertisers grew accustomed to free, daily refreshed, convenient, and, more importantly, non-modelled data on their media activities. ​

The continued appeal of non-modelled ​tracking of people for advertising purposes is understandable, but the global privacy regulation trend offers headwinds only. A trend known better by its acronyms; GDPR, CCPA, PIPL etc. which has seen an accumulating list of misuse cases substantiating a new commercial reality for advertising, i.e., the €40 million claim against Criteo¹ in the EU, and more recently, Oracle’s $115 million settlement in the US, which led Oracle to shut down their AdTech businesses. ​

​The key takeaway is that any consumer data collection without the first-party relationship faces significant problems².

​The diminishing scale of the old world 

If you’ve ever attended a large dinner party and found yourself stuck at a table with the same few guests, you will have a good first-hand experience of the reality for cross-company tracking of people. ​

A recent study with a leading un-named AdTech firm found that top ID providers in mature markets mimics this dinner party; most of the party – i.e., the advertiser’s audience – is effectively unreachable (varying between 60% to 90% unreachable). This only worsens when factoring in advertiser match rates, where a 20% match rate left us with only 12% audience reach for a campaign best case. ​

A scale issue echoed in industry news³, and for advertisers especially, the strategic value of cross-company ID practices looks diminished when comparing the global regulatory trends with the tangible lack of scale.​

​A well-aimed shot to further escalate the reality of the regulatory trend was fired in February 2024 with the Open Rights Group’s filing against LiveRamp⁴. This will take a while to make impact, as government bodies review it, but when it does, it may well erode the last bit of faith in a future for intermediaries supplying cross-company tracking of people. ​

This leaves cross-company ID solutions stuck at sea with little promise of ever reaching shore, and Oracle is just a recent example of a company taking the consequence of this trajectory to close their AdTech properties.

Back to the future 

Interestingly, the privacy trend and the diminishing tracking is pushing the advertising industry back to modeled data, with both Google and Facebook now openly modeling conversions⁵ and increasingly combining non-modelled and modelled data into combined targetable audience groups.  

We have been carefully gauging how advertisers view these modelled data. Ultimately, they determine what succeeds, and their preferences are becoming increasingly clear. And while they are embracing of modelled data, they do remain hooked on the remainder of what they’ve grown accustomed to; free, daily refreshed and convenient. 

The explosion of first-party data 

Though cross-company tracking is diminishing, we are seeing an absolute explosion of valuable first-party data with publishers that have first-party relationships with consumers. The publishers we meet through our work with GroupM Investment and Choreograph’s partnership team, truly unveil this richness of data, but it’s often accompanied by frustration, as advertisers don’t have scalable means to plan, activate or measure against it. ​

Advertisers’ dominant way of interacting with publishers remains dependent on the direct exchange of personal data or PII (Personally Identifiable Information), which offers very limited inventory reach and increasingly redundant ‘Soft Privacy’ where data is still shared between parties. 

Hard Privacy needn’t limit yield​

The trend towards global privacy regulation is slowly but surely making Soft Privacy practices redundant, and publishers must change their strategic lens to deliver upon advertiser objectives whilst complying with the ‘Hard Privacy’ principles⁶ that will futureproof the industry’s success.​

Fortunately, advertisers are seeing the value of modelled data, which offers publishers a leg up in complying with Hard Privacy while optimizing yield. This offers an opportunity for publishers individually, but the big play is one of industry-wide advertiser convenience for scaled adoption.

Towards new norms​

​The dominant way advertisers and publishers interact will change, and in a way that will deliver on advertisers’ accustomed expectations: free, daily refreshed, easy, and convenient. A new norm, fundamentally shaped by privacy regulation, is emerging that achieves:​

• Advertiser convenience ​
• Hard Privacy​
• Inventory scale with +95% reach

​Putting spend behind the transformation​

One way to set out on the right track on all the above is using your own first-party data with a decentralized data platform that brings Hard Privacy standards to first-party data activation, and lets you capture demand from GroupM while offering operational efficiency and letting you keep control of your data.​

A Resolve installation enables this without requiring you to create a large new technology cost base or assemble the team to operate it. The inherent demand from GroupM creates a pathway to maximize the revenue opportunity whilst keeping control of data, on the journey towards new norms.​